The Week Ahead: Key Developments Impacting Global Politics & Markets
Editor's note: This article is a shortened on-site version of KI Insights' The Week Ahead newsletter covering events from Dec. 16 to Dec. 22. Sign up here to start your week with an agenda of Ukraine-related events, delivered directly to your inbox every Sunday.
Central banks accounting for over 40% of the world’s economy will set rates next week – incl. a possible record hike in Russia. With inflation expected to reach 9% in 2024 and pressure on the ruble, analysts now expect the Russian Central Bank to increase rates to a record 23% (up 200 basis points).
Much of the world is dealing with combinations of low growth, high debt, budget deficits and the fallout of politically destabilizing inflation – potentially making macroeconomics a surprise 2025 geopolitical driver. The biggest central bank, the US Federal Reserve, faces uncertainty between a booming economy and highly inflationary Trump tariff plans. It is expected to modestly cut rates (25 basis points) on Wednesday, Dec. 18.
The Verkhovna Rada's final plenary week of the year will take place Dec. 17–20. A significant focus will be the first reading of the bill addressing the construction of Units 3 and 4 at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant. Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko is strongly advocating for this construction project. Additionally, lawmakers will consider legislation on multiple citizenships.
The presidential election campaign in Croatia is underway, with the first round set for Dec. 29. Current polls show incumbent President Zoran Milanović leading at 35%, while Dragan Primorac holds second place with 24.5%. Maria Selak Raspudić trails significantly in third place at 8%.
Milanović, known for his pro-Putin stance, advocates for Croatia's withdrawal from both the EU and NATO. While Primorac, the former Minister of Education and Science, has a viable path to victory through his nomination by the ruling HDZ party and its allies, his campaign's low visibility and limited political profile may hinder his chances.
The dismissal of Ukrainian Institute of National Memory head Anton Drobovych may move forward talks on Volyn exhumations – a key source of Polish-Ukrainian tensions. Drobovych often frustrated Poles, most recently claiming Poland had not delivered a list of locations for exhumation work (shortly after a significant communique by Foreign Ministers Andrii Sybiha and Radosław Sikorski seemed to resolve the matter). The issue remains complex, notably given Polish presidential elections next year (and possibly in Ukraine).
Other events and milestones:
- Dec. 17 (14-18 EET // 12-16 GMT): "The Path to the EU: Consolidating Efforts of the Government, Business, and Society" hybrid conference (offline in Kyiv, and online) will discuss Ukraine's macroeconomic challenges, business growth and EU integration. Organized by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting. Register here.
- Dec. 17 (16-19.15 EET // 14-17.15 GMT): “Barriers to Business Operations - Infrastructure, Logistics, and Supply Chain Barriers and the Impact on Exporting” online webinar by Kyiv Language Services will explore managing trade hurdles. Join online here.
If you have an upcoming event that you would like featured in our newsletter, please get in touch via insights@kyivindependent.com.
KI Insights
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