Outnumbered and outgunned, Ukraine struggles to halt Russian advance near Pokrovsk

December 14, 2024

By Ukraine

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Russian troops are closing in on Pokrovsk from the east and south. After the capture of Shevchenko village just south of the city, Russian forces are less than 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) from this key logistics hub sitting on the western edge of Donetsk Oblast.

"The fighting is extremely fierce. The Russian invaders are throwing all available forces forward, trying to break through the defense of our troops," Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said.

Ukraine had been suffering from an extensive infantry shortage, as well as disputes within the military command leading the defense.

Pokrovsk is the last stronghold in the southwestern part of Donetsk Oblast, holding back Russian forces from advancing further toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the regional capital of Dnipro, home to 1 million people and serving as the main hub for Kyiv's operations in the southeast.

Pokrovsk is the last stronghold in the southwestern part of Donetsk Oblast, holding back Russian forces from advancing further toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Stanislav Buniatov, a platoon commander of the 24th Separate Assault Battalion Aidar, wrote on his Telegram that "everyone has already accepted that Russian troops will enter Pokrovsk." However, he added, not everyone understands what consequences this will have for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Russia's further advance in the area.

"Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is not built up with villages like Donetsk Oblast, so that progress will be faster there," Buniatov said, adding that once Russia enters the next oblast of Ukraine, it will again dictate the conditions for the full ceding of these territories under Russian control.

`Under enemy's fire`

Around 11,000 people remain in Pokrovsk, which was home to over 60,000 before the full-scale war, according to the local military administration.

Most utility companies and local businesses have stopped functioning. There is also no gas supply or heating in the city due to the power lines damaged or destroyed by constant Russian shelling.

Although gunfire and explosions can already be heard in the city, a few mines near Pokrovsk continue to operate.

Local authorities have been urging residents to evacuate for several months, adding that "there is no safe place in Donetsk Oblast as of now." Evacuation is a challenge, however, with human lives at stake.

Since September, the state-owned railway, Ukrzaliznytsia, has canceled evacuation trains from Pokrovsk due to the risk of Russian attacks and now runs them from Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, 100 kilometers (62 miles) away from the embattled city. Evacuation by buses or cars remains available from Pokrovsk.

While locals are considering whether they are ready to evacuate and leave their old life behind, Russian troops have advanced and gained a foothold in the villages of Novotroiitske and Shevchenko in December, according to the crowd-sourced monitoring website Deep State. The Shevchenko village is roughly less than 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) from Pokrovsk.

Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesman for the Khortytsia group of forces, said the Ukrainian army is trying to recover lost positions near Pokrovsk, particularly near the neighboring villages of Shevchenko and Vidrodzhennia.

"The enemy attacked our fortifications in the Pokrovsk direction, west of Vidrodzhennia and south of Novotroiitske, and as a result of prolonged fighting, two of our positions were destroyed, and one was lost," Voloshyn said on national television.

Gustav Gressel, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Berlin office, suggested that Russia is planning an attack on the city from the south to surround it and cut off the main logistical routes connecting the Ukrainian-controlled territories to the front line.

According to Gressel, Pokrovsk may face the same fate as Avdiivka, captured by Russian forces in February 2024.

"Now, Russian forces can reach the city (of Pokrovsk) with mortars and, of course, artillery. But the proximity to the E50 (route) and the rail line to Dnipro is even more problematic," Gressel told the Kyiv Independent.

Russian forces can reach the city (of Pokrovsk) with mortars and, of course, artillery. But the proximity to the E50 (route) and the rail line to Dnipro is even more problematic.

"The Russians may soon physically reach the rail line to Zaporizhzhia, putting the E50 under fire. This will have consequences for logistics in the whole southeastern perimeter."

Meanwhile, even since the capture of Avdiivka, Russian military tactics had changed significantly. Now, Russian forces are sparing no resources in bombarding Ukrainian cities with guided aerial bombs and drones, and Pokrovsk is no exception.

Drones provide access to better awareness of the terrain, the location of the opponent's positions, and critical infrastructure. Drones also provide control of important logistics routes, cutting off essential supplies.

Gressel calls the factor of drones a decisive one in the Pokrovsk direction, adding that their qualitative evolution, namely the development of resistance to interference and an increase in flight range, plays an even more significant role.

"Unfortunately, the Russians learned and adapted quite a lot in this field," he added.

This is not Russia's only advantage in this front-line sector.

`Matter of time`

One key reason Russian forces advance rapidly is their superior manpower. While the Ukrainian government has made efforts to update mobilization legislation and recruit more people, there has not been a major effect in the hottest spots of the front line.

Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said that Ukraine cannot properly staff its combat units and conduct rotations due to a lack of personnel. At the same time, Russia continues to push.

Finding the weakest points in the Ukrainian army's defense, Russian troops are also resorting to non-standard solutions, such as unarmed and even civilian vehicles are now commonplace and used for attacks, Borsari added.

"Constant assaults, even when unsuccessful, erode Ukrainian combat power as they drain ammunition and supplies, leaving Ukrainian units unable to deal with successive waves of vehicles and infantry," Borsari told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia, which has suffered record losses this fall and winter, will not relinquish its goal of capturing Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military has criticized the actions of the general command, explaining that the military is being given "unrealistic" tasks with its resources.

"The main reason for the disaster in the Pokrovsk sector is the high command, which sets unrealistic tasks for the units. Generals who do not understand the units' capabilities and do not know the situation on the zero line," Serhii Filimonov, commander of the Da Vinci Wolves Battalion of the 59th Brigade, wrote on his Telegram.

Alina Mikhailova, the head of the Ulf medical service in the Da Vinci Wolves Battalion, also criticized General Yurii Lutsenko in her social media, accusing him of heavy losses, both in terms of territory and human lives, in Donetsk Oblast.

These comments were left without a public response from the Ukrainian General Staff and Syrskyi himself. However, according to the Financial Times, Lutsenko had been removed from his position as commander of the Donetsk operational and tactical group.

Ukrainian military officials had not confirmed the sacking.

Borsari echoed the stance of Buniatov from Aidar, saying that the Kremlin wants to grab as much territory as possible and be in a position of strength at the negotiating table.

Borsari believed that Ukraine had a chance, albeit a slim one, to defend the city. Gressel also saw no easy way for Ukraine to keep Pokrovsk but noted that he would be surprised if the city was captured by the end of this year.

In the meantime, all that remains for the Ukrainian forces is to hold the line.

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