UK intel: Assad’s fall threatens Russia’s strategic ambitions in Africa and Mediterranean Sea

December 14, 2024

By Ukraine

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Russian officials almost certainly consider the collapse of the Assad regime, its former Syrian ally, to be both detrimental to its regional strategic interests and to its image as a security guarantor.

Russia’s inability to prop up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marked a significant shift in Middle Eastern power dynamics and exposes the costs of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. This development highlights how Russia’s fixation on the Ukraine war has undermined its broader strategic ambitions, potentially weakening its influence from the Levant to North Africa.

As reported by the UK Ministry of Defense, the Russian leadership most likely considers the Russo-Ukrainian War to be their primary concern. Russia’s prioritization of war against Ukraine likely degraded Russia’s ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.

Russia’s primary aim in Syria as of this moment is to maintain control of its military bases – its largest overseas naval base at Tartus and its airbase in Khmeimim – to enable Russian strategic access to the Near East and the Mediterranean Sea, supporting its aims in Africa and allowing for military power projection. The collapse of the Assad regime has almost certainly increased the risk to the security of these assets.

British military analysts consider that in the short term, Russia will highly likely seek to repair its reputation as a reliable partner and engage diplomatically with all relevant actors involved, in efforts to ensure security guarantees for its military bases.

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