Russian forces lack resources for major Zaporizhzhia offensive, Ukraine’s military says

Russian forces currently lack the resources needed for a large-scale offensive operation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, while attempting to seize control of Dnipro River islands near Kherson, according to Serhii Bratchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Volunteer Army South, who spoke on Ukrainian Radio on 5 December.

Earlier reports indicated that due to the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Kursk operation initiated in August, Russia abandoned plans for an offensive on Zaporizhzhia and had to redeploy one of its most combat-ready units from Zaporizhzhia to Russia.

Bratchuk noted that Russia is conducting an extensive information campaign regarding potential offensives in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblast, particularly through social media.

“They are investing significant effort in this area and exaggerating events in these locations, including regional centers like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where such events are not actually occurring,” Bratchuk said.

Zaporizhzhia

The military spokesperson noted Russian movements in Robotyne, Orikhiv, and Huliaipole directions within Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with intense fighting ongoing near Velyka Novosilka in nearby Donetsk Oblast, near the tri-border point of three regions of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk. Bratchuk stated that Ukrainian forces have achieved a tactical advantage by regaining control of one settlement near Velyka Novosilka.

Situation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Map: ISW

The Russian army’s current operations in the region are limited to small assault groups rather than mechanized operations, with their primary focus on the Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka sectors, he says.

According to Bratchuk, the main threat to Zaporizhzhia city remains aerial attacks with guided bombs, missiles, and kamikaze drones, aimed at terrorizing civilians. He emphasized that the city’s defenses include first, second, and third lines, with Ukrainian forces maintaining full control of the situation.

 “Currently, the enemy lacks resources to launch a large-scale offensive in the region, let alone against the city. The main threat to Zaporizhzhia remains aerial attacks with bombs, missiles, and kamikaze drones, aimed at terrorizing civilians,” Bratchuk emphasized.

Situation in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast and southern Donetsk Oblast. Map: ISW

Kherson

Recently, Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, told FT that Russian forces have assembled 300 boats near Kherson in what appeared to be preparation for potential river crossing operations.

“Crossing the Dnipro would be suicidal for the enemy,” Bratchuk commented on this, noting that Ukrainian forces maintain complete fire control over potential crossing points along the nearly 200-kilometer stretch of the river.

He says the Russia’s current focus in the area is on attempting to control Dnipro islands to expand their “grey zone” and terrorize Kherson and nearby communities.

Situation in Kherson Oblast. Map: ISW

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