Russo-Ukrainian War, day 1016: Ukraine triples military tax as $12B defense gap looms, EU offers to cover US aid shortfall

Military

Ukrainian drone hits moving Russian Tor anti-air system at night (video). Russians lost at least 61 Tor SAM systems during the ongoing all-out war.

Frontline report: Two Ukrainian Marines repel massed Russian infantry assault in Kursk Oblast. The engagement, captured on video by the 36th Marine Brigade, demonstrates Ukraine’s effective use of coordinated defense against Russia’s increasingly desperate “meatwave” tactics.

Ukrainian forces regain control of Novyi Komar in Donetsk Oblast, disrupting Russian plans. A Ukrainian counterattack has prevented potential Russian advances to the rear from a key stronghold in the southeastern front line section.

As of 5 DEC 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

Intelligence and Technology

Ukraine tests fiber-optic guided hexacopter bombers to counter jamming. Ukrainian E-Banshee developers tested fiber-optic guided bomber UAVs, achieving successful, uninterrupted 10-kilometer flights through the forest.

Russia resorts to cyberattacks on Ukraine’s energy system before conducting massive shelling. Russian cyber operations against power infrastructure have become reliable indicators of impending missile strikes, with digital attacks consistently preceding physical bombardments by 48 hours.

UK intel: Russia suffers unprecedented 45,680 casualties in November. As Russian forces push their winter offensive across multiple Ukrainian fronts, the human toll is reaching staggering heights.

International

Finland donates winter gear to Ukrainian Armed Forces and prepares new aid package. “Finland is one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters, and we have no plans to change that,” Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen stated.

EU ready to cover $ 50 bn Ukraine loan if US withdraws, says Polish minister. Poland’s deputy finance minister stated that the European Union is ready to compensate financially if the US pulls out of G7’s Ukraine loan backed by proceeds from frozen Russian assets.

No new Ukraine funds until Trump returns to office, speaker Johnson says. He emphasized that US foreign policy, including aid to Ukraine, should align with Trump’s priorities once he resumes power in 2025.

Zelenskyy top aide meets Trump advisers to discuss war settlement with Russia – media. Ukraine’s delegation led by Yermak held talks on the Ukraine-Russia war, possibly seeking NATO membership, and continued US support, WSJ and Reuters report.

The Netherlands announces €22 million in aid for Ukraine’s air defense. Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp announced this on 4 December via X following his meeting with Ukraine’s counterpart Andriy Sybiha.

Experts urge Trump to ramp up pressure on Putin before any peace talks. FP analysts urge the US President-elect to weaken Russia’s position by ramping up military aid to Ukraine, targeting Russian economics, and reinforcing NATO.

Humanitarian and Social Impact

Ukraine downs most Russian explosive drones, but other attacks kill at least 3 civilians. Russian FPV drone strikes on civilian cars in Kherson and Kupiansk injured two men, part of at least 21 reported injuries.

3,000 ships have used Ukraine’s maritime corridor, carrying 85 million tons of cargo. Ukraine established the corridor after the Russian fleet had been pushed back from the Ukrainian coasts despite Russian attempts to continue the sea blockade.

Ukraine is searching for nearly 20,000 children deported by Russia; real numbers could be much higher. Children’s identity was often changed. Recent research from Yale University has characterized Russia’s adoption program of deported Ukrainian children as “systematic and widespread.”

Political and Legal Developments

Romania thwarts suspected Russian-directed sabotage attempt. Romanian authorities arrested a 34-year-old Colombian suspect for attempting Russian-coordinated sabotage acts targeting critical infrastructure.

US imposes sanctions on Russian officials involved in deportation of Ukrainian children. “As it fights to defend its very existence as a sovereign, independent state, Ukraine is grappling with the extraordinary challenge of locating these children, negotiating their release, bringing them home, and providing the critical support they need,” the Department of State’s statement reads.

Ukraine imposes sanctions on pro-Russian Georgian officials. The sanctions target 19 individuals who, according to Zelenskyy, are “selling Georgia’s interests” and helping to advance Russian influence in the country.

New Developments

North Korean troops take up support roles in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. While performing second echelon duties for the Russian Armed Forces, these troops are enabling Russian commanders to shift their own troops to frontline positions.

ISW: Putin claims GDP grew 4.1% in 2024 as cash savings hit historical low. Amid concerns over inflation, the Russian Central Bank is contemplating a 25% interest rate hike, signaling economic challenges despite Putin’s claims of growth.

Russia’s navy-escorted tanker targets Bundeswehr helicopter with warning flares in Baltic. Last week, a Russian tanker fired signal ammunition at a German army helicopter conducting surveillance in the Baltic Sea, escalating tensions in the region.

The Telegraph: Putin may need ceasefire in Ukraine if he loses Tartus naval base in Syria. Russia evacuates naval assets from Syria, signaling a strategic shift and potential loss of influence in the Mediterranean.

Read our earlier daily review here.