ISW: Russia encircles Velyka Novosilka, key hub for operations at the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia-Dnipropetrovsk border

Russian forces have intensified offensive operations near Velyka Novosilka, making strategic advances that could potentially reshape the conflict dynamics in the border region between Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 3 December.

Geolocated footage reveals Russian forces have pushed north of Novyi Komar, a move that supports multiple potential military strategies.

According to the ISW, these advances could enable Russian forces to either envelope or bypass Velyka Novosilka, with the potential to interdict the critical T0518 Velyka Novosilka-Bahatyr highway or advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn said that Russian forces are conducting “20 to 25 assaults daily” in the Vremivka direction. These assaults involve small, armored assault groups targeting the border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have seized Novodarivka, southwest of Velyka Novosilka, though the ISW has not yet confirmed this claim. Voloshyn added that Russian forces are making “slow, incremental advances” near Velyka Novosilka, while Ukrainian forces are mounting counterattacks in the area.

The offensive operations have been multidirectional, with Russian forces engaging near Velyka Novosilka itself, north of the town in Novyi Komar, northeast near Rozdolne, west near Novosilka, and southwest near Novodarivka and Novopil on 2 and 3 December.

Russian forces made advances near Pokrovsk, with footage from December 2 confirming movement southeast of the village of Dachenske. Ukrainian sources noted a significant change in Russian assault tactics. Mykola Koval, press service chief of the 14th National Guard Brigade Chervona Kalyna, said that while Russian forces previously sent up to 50 personnel in assault groups, the number of troops has substantially decreased.

Ukrainian forces have also repelled a Russian attempt to establish a foothold on the western bank of the Oskil River north of Kupiansk. Geolocated footage published on 3 December confirms Ukrainian control of Novomlynsksk, contradicting recent Russian claims of advancement in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to cross the Oskil River near Novomlynsksk, but were driven back by Ukrainian artillery and drone strikes.

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