Russia 'unlikely' to launch nuclear attack despite Putin's threats, US intelligence says
Washington's decision to allow Kyiv to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia has not increased the risk of a nuclear attack, Reuters reported on Nov. 27, citing five unnamed sources familiar with the intelligence data.
The news comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin updated the nuclear doctrine on Nov. 19, and Russian government officials continue to criticize the recent White House decision, calling it a push for "escalation."
Despite the Kremlin's recent statements, the risk of a nuclear attack is unlikely, Reuters reported, citing its unidentified sources.
Intelligence assessments over the past seven months have shown that a nuclear escalation is unlikely to result from a decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons. "The assessments were consistent: The ATACMS weren't going to change Russia’s nuclear calculus," said one congressional aide briefed on the intelligence
Meanwhile, Moscow is expected to expand its campaign of sabotage against European facilities to increase pressure on the West for its support of Kyiv, two high-ranking officials, a lawmaker, and two congressional aides told the news agency.
One of the five U.S. officials also noted that unveiling the new missile, referring to the Russian-made Oreshnik, is a step toward escalation.
U.S. officials said the intelligence helped guide the contentious debate within the Joe Biden administration over whether Washington should ease restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons because of the risk of provoking Putin.
In mid-November, Biden authorized Ukraine to use the ATACMS to strike deeper inside Russia, a decision to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position. His administration previously resisted supplying such weapons over concerns of escalating tensions with Russia.
The changes come amid significant challenges for Ukraine, including battlefield losses, reports of North Korea sending troops to support Russia, and Donald Trump taking office in January. Trump has vowed to end the war within 24 hours, but officials worry his administration would cut off aid to Ukraine, undermining its ability to resist Russian aggression.
Many U.S. officials now acknowledge that Ukraine could be pushed into talks within months and might be forced to cede territory to end the war, the Washington Post (WP) reported on Nov. 26.
Andreas Umland
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