Frontline report: Predictable routes doom Russian push near Velyka Novosilka in Kurakhove drive

Today, there are a lot of important updates from the Velyka Novosilka direction in Donetsk Oblast. 

After an intense and ultimately unsuccessful push to encircle Kurakhove, Russian forces found their offensive grind to a halt under stiff Ukrainian resistance. In a desperate pivot to regain momentum, they shifted their focus westward to the village of Velyka Novosilka, setting the stage for a decisive battle.

The primary Russian objective in this region was to break through Ukrainian defenses west of the salient and advance toward the village of Kostiantynopil. Capturing this position would have enabled Russian forces to sever Kurakhove from the mainland and encircle Ukrainian troops in the salient. Anticipating this, the Ukrainian command acted decisively, fortifying the defensive line in front of Kostiantynopil to block any potential Russian breakthrough.

Russians make tactical shift from North to West 

The Russian offensive from the south eventually stalled as properly reinforced Ukrainian defenses resisted the advance while Russian forces grappled with overextended logistics and combat fatigue from relentless frontal assaults. Recognizing the diminishing prospects of reaching Kostiantynopil, the Russian command shifted their strategy. Rather than continuing northward, they redirected westward, banking on the assumption that Ukrainian reinforcements for Kostiantynopil had been drawn from Velyka Novosilka, an area that had not been heavily contested.

Seizing this opportunity, Russian forces attempted to outflank Velyka Novosilka. Instead of targeting Kurakhove, Russian forces launched two distinct attack vectors in their operation. The first vector advanced directly from the village of Zolota Nyva toward Velyka Novosilka via the main highway. This assault was not intended to breach the town itself but aimed to pin Ukrainian troops in place, preventing them from reinforcing nearby areas such as the village of Rozdolne. The second vector targeted Rozdolne from Shakhtarske with the primary objective of severing a key logistical route leading to Velyka Novosilka.

Russians face tactical challenges

If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Ukrainian supply lines in this area traverse the lowlands, making them more vulnerable to Russian fire control. While alternative routes to the town exist, disrupting these supply lines aligns with the broader Russian strategy of undermining Ukrainian logistics.

However, Russian forces also face significant tactical disadvantages. Their advances rely heavily on a network of small, dispersed villages connected by open fields and limited paved roads, making their attack routes highly predictable. This predictability grants Ukrainian forces a critical advantage as they can more effectively identify Russian preparations for assaults. Additionally, the large distances Russian troops must traverse to concentrate forces in key staging areas such as Shakhtarske and Zolota Nyva hinder their ability to deploy large formations without detection. Ukrainian reconnaissance drones further compound this issue, making it challenging for Russian forces to mobilize covertly.

Battle footage shows Russian losses and tactical retreats

Combat footage from the Ukrainian Presidential Brigade highlights a Russian platoon-sized attack near Velyka Novosilka involving three to four armored vehicles and tanks.

Due to the extensive open fields they must traverse, Russian vehicles are swiftly detected and targeted by Ukrainian drone operators. Despite suffering vehicle losses, Russian soldiers promptly dismounted and sought refuge in nearby tree lines to avoid becoming larger targets aboard their vehicles. While some managed to evade destruction through concealment, many were neutralized. Such engagements occur multiple times daily east of Velyka Novosilka, resulting in scattered survivors from decimated units gradually accumulating in tree lines that Russians claimed to be secured. However, despite repeated attempts, Russian forces failed to secure their objectives in the area.

Overall, the shift in Russian focus from Kurakhove to Velyka Novosilka underscores the limitations of their current operational capacity and highlights the adaptability of Ukrainian defenses. While the Russian attempt to outflank Ukrainian positions reveals a strategic pivot, their reliance on predictable roads and exposed formations leaves them vulnerable to precise Ukrainian countermeasures. This development demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukraine’s defensive strategies and signals that Russian forces are increasingly stretched thin, facing significant logistical and tactical constraints that could shape the outcome of future engagements in the region.

In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.