FT: Ukraine expects escalation of Russian offensives on multiple fronts as critical stage of war looms

Ukraine anticipates an escalation of Russian offensives in the coming weeks. According to Financial Times, Moscow has intensified its attacks in recent months, and Ukrainian officials have admitted that their defenses are “crumbling,” according to the Financial Times.

The situation on the Ukrainian front lines remains intense as of November 2024, with ongoing combat across multiple fronts, particularly in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk areas. Ukrainian forces are facing increased Russian artillery shelling, especially in the Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, while also repelling numerous assaults in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian losses are exceeding 1,300 soldiers in a single day, and overall casualties surpassing 700,000 since the all-out began. Despite losses, Russia managed to achieve territorial gains in eastern Ukraine.

Currently, military officials, soldiers, and analysts see the next few months as a crucial phase in the war.

Kyiv expects the offensive to gain momentum and a Ukrainian army representative told the Financial Times that more medical personnel was being sent to the eastern front in anticipation of heavy battles in the coming days and weeks, “particularly in the south and east”.

The commander of an artillery unit near Kurakhove, where fighting is heaviest, said to the correspondents that Russian forces are “attacking from three directions.”

He said his unit is ready to retreat, “but we do not have the order from the top yet”.

Meanwhile, the military analysis center CDS estimates that by December, “the front line will probably shift 30-35 km west of its current position.”

Commanders and analysts say Ukraine’s biggest challenge remains a shortage of personnel, especially infantry.

Ukraine plans to draft an additional 160,000 soldiers from November to February, which the National Security and Defense Council believes could bring military units to about 85 percent of the required strength.

However, military experts and Ukrainian officials are skeptical about reaching this goal, suggesting it’s more realistic to expect a draft of up to 100,000.

At the same time, several Ukrainian commanders and soldiers have stated that recruitment efforts are hindered by military service being open-ended. Kyiv has not passed a law on demobilisation for fear it could lead to an exodus of soldiers.

“A lot of guys now see mobilisation as a death sentence,” said one soldier who joined the army in spring 2022 and has not had a break since.

Additionally, two commanders on the eastern front told the newspaper that they are having to deploy skilled personnel, including medics, to infantry positions.

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