Russia preparing a 50,000-people-strong offensive in latest attempt to push Ukrainian army out of Kursk Oblast

November 12, 2024

By Ukraine

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Over the past week, Russia had been gathering forces in what appears to be preparations for a decisive push in the country's Kursk Oblast.

"The situation is changing every day. Not long ago, we were on the offensive, and now we are on the defensive," a 35-year-old artilleryman with the callsign Spys, fighting in the area, told the Kyiv Independent.

In light of the recent advances of Russian troops in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv oblasts, the country now faces a new challenge: defending the positions gained in the August cross-border offensive.

Ukrainian soldiers are holding off nearly 50,000 troops in Russia's embattled Kursk Oblast, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 11.

Spared from decreasing the number of personnel conducting assaults in Ukraine's east and beefed up by over 10,000 soldiers from North Korea, Russia is likely to attempt to launch a major offensive from the north, potentially not stopping at the now nonexistent border.

`Imminent attack`

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported in early October that Russia had transferred around 50,000 soldiers from the front to Kursk Oblast. In early November, Ukrainian officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the New York Times (NYT) that an assault involving these soldiers would take place "very soon."

The Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast consists of marine brigades, including the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet and the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, an airborne division, special forces battalion units, and a number of assault battalions, according to Vadym Mysnyk, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Operational Tactical Group Siversk.

Experts who spoke to the Kyiv Independent noted that Russia had also deployed troops from the Leningrad Military District, stationed near St. Petersburg, and even formed some infantry units from military personnel who had previously maintained Russian airfields.

"The Ukrainian military was able to gain advantageous heights in Kursk Oblast and thus lured Russian reserves," Ukrainian military expert Dmytro Zhmailo told the Kyiv Independent.

"If we had not done this, 50,000 troops would have definitely replenished the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and other priority directions for the Russians, and then the (Russian) advance in the east (of Ukraine) would have been more painful," Zhmailo added.

Although the Kursk operation has been ongoing for several months, the Russian military involved in the area is still coordinating and forming combat units.

As of early November, about 11,000 North Korean soldiers were already in Kursk Oblast. According to a report by the New York Times, North Korean troops would be fighting as light infantry, vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks, without the assistance of armored vehicles.

Zhmailo agreed with the following assessment, adding that the number of North Korean soldiers transferred to Kursk Oblast will not significantly affect the course of the battle, given the recent Russian losses.

He added that it is difficult to determine how effective North Korean troops are as there have been very few military clashes. Another Ukrainian defense expert, Andrii Kharuk, echoes Zhmailo's stance, mentioning that North Korean troops have not been involved in wars since 1953.

The deployment of North Korean soldiers as light infantry is the most rational in terms of tactics, Kharuk added.

"During the Korean War in 1950-1953, North Korean troops acted in small groups, using the tactic of 'infiltration' (between the opponent's military units) and consolidation of assault operations. This is a traditional tactic for them," Kharuk said.

Among the challenges faced by North Korean soldiers, Kharuk mentioned the language barrier and that the North Korean army mainly fought in mountainous terrain. In Kursk Oblast, it faces a gently undulating plain.

Yet, the expert emphasized that in any case, 50,000 personnel in this area is a "rather large number."

"These are actually Russian losses of a month or a month and a half. It will take us a month and a half to knock out this number of troops ," Kharuk said.

"Their accumulation in Kursk Oblast is a positive thing. On the other hand, we cannot say for sure how many Ukrainian troops are involved in deterring Russian and North Korean troops."

`Open road to Sumy`

The Ukrainian command hasn't provided updates on the state affairs for Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. Officials also do not disclose which units are fighting in this area.

DeepState, a Ukrainian crowdsourced monitoring website, reported late on Oct. 10 that Russia managed to push through the left flank of Ukraine's salient in Kursk Oblast.

"The enemy is now trying to establish a foothold near the settlements of Novoivanovka and Zeleny Shliakh," DeepState reported on Telegram. The two settlements lie some 15 kilometers from the Ukrainian-held town of Sudzha and around 10 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border.

Parallel messages also appeared on Russian pro-war channels. The well-known Rybar channel wrote that Russian forces launched several attacks in the Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts, in which Ukraine established its foothold.

"I suspect both sides are taking significant losses in Kursk Oblast, with the Russians likely suffering considerably higher losses given that they are on the offensive," John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Kyiv Independent.

"Ukraine's casualty rate may start to rise as trees shed their leaves, providing less concealment from Russian reconnaissance drones and exposing Ukrainian troops to greater threats from Russian artillery, glide bombs, and so on."

Ukraine continues to maintain its positions on Russian territory not only from a strategic point of view but also from a geopolitical one, experts interviewed by the Kyiv Independent said.

"Withdrawing Ukrainian units from Kursk Oblast could help in the east (of Ukraine), though it would also mean sacrificing a potential bargaining chip in peace talks. However, stabilizing its lines in the east is also critical for Ukraine's negotiating position, and I doubt Moscow will be willing to begin negotiations until it has retaken all the territory in Kursk (Oblast)," Hardie said.

While Ukraine continues to retain Russian territories in Kursk Oblast, Russia keeps advancing at an increased pace deeper into Donetsk Oblast and beyond. In August and September, Moscow seized 5.5 times more Ukrainian territory than in all of 2023, according to the Ua War Infographics project.

Kharuk called the potential loss of positions in Kursk Oblast in favor of reinforcing troops in other parts of the front "insignificant" for Ukraine from a psychological point of view, as it is Russian territory.

At the same time, experts agree that Ukraine can hold Russian territories at least until early 2025.

Zhmailo said that Russian troops would most likely advance into northern Sumy Oblast if they breach Ukrainian defenses in the neighboring Kursk Oblast.

Ukraine's operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast has helped prevent the occupation of Sumy Oblast and its regional center, the city of Sumy, Zelensky said on a number of occasions since the start of the offensive in early August.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election has cast a shadow over further American assistance to Ukraine. The Republican candidate has repeatedly made controversial statements about the war and the Ukrainian government, including Zelensky.

"No country in the world, except for the U.S. and China, can stand up to Russia's military on its own. So, unfortunately, we are dependent on our partners here," Zmailo added, speaking about further Ukrainian operations on Russian soil.

While the debate over future military aid for Ukraine rages on, the Ukrainian military still holds the front in Kursk Oblast. The artilleryman with the call sign Spys, who has been fighting in the Kursk sector since August, said that things are still "more or less stable."

"Russian troops are bombarding us with glide bombs. One road leading to this (Kursk) direction is constantly monitored by Russian FPV (first-person-view) drones. This road is dotted with broken equipment. And we can't do anything about it — the territory is small, and drones can be launched from any direction," Spys told the Kyiv Independent.

"It is hard to say what will happen next. Our positions are being attacked regularly, but the contact line has not changed significantly so far."

Additional reporting by Natalia Yermak.

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