ISW: Recent Vuhledar capture enables Russian tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces have achieved tactical gains south of Donetsk Oblast’s Kurakhove, successfully leveraging their recent capture of Vuhledar to support ongoing offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, ISW reported as of 11 November.

Russia continues its efforts to capture remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast, focusing on Pokrovsk, and additionally on Kurakhove. As Russia widely utilizes the “meat assault” tactics of frontal attacks, it keeps making incremental gains despite heavy losses, with Zelenskyy reporting Russian forces outnumbering Ukrainians 8:1 in some areas, forcing retreats.

According to ISW, Russian forces are attempting to envelop Kurakhove from multiple directions while working to level the frontline between Sontsivka and Shakhtarske, borthwest of Kurakhove and Vuhledar respectively. The offensive operations in the region intensified in early September 2024.

Following the capture of Vuhledar on 1 October, Russian forces have advanced north and northwest of the city through a series of successful mechanized and infantry assaults. ISW reports marginal Russian advances northeast of Vuhledar near Antonivka and Katerynivka, though confirmation of advances into Yelizavetivka and further west along the C051104 highway is pending.

Geolocated footage from 10 November shows Russian forces have advanced northeast of Dalne, maintaining positions in the fields east and southeast of the settlement. While Russian milbloggers claim forces have entered Dalne itself, ISW notes these claims remain unconfirmed.

Further advances into and west of Dalne could compel Ukrainian forces to withdraw from positions in the pocket north and northeast of Vuhledar, potentially allowing uncontested Russian movement along the C051104 highway, ISW analyzes.

“ISW is revising its previous assessment that Russian forces would not likely be able to take advantage of the seizure of Vuhledar for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast. That assessment was incorrect,” the think tank wrote.

More Russian advances

Additional geolocated footage from 11 November indicates elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade have advanced into central Novoselydivka, north of Kurakhove. Russian milbloggers report advances near Novooleksiivka and into Sontsivka, as well as fighting along Stantsiyna and Kozatska streets in Kurakhove’s eastern outskirts.

In the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, Russian forces have reportedly made progress, with milbloggers claiming advances in southern Makarivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian attacks near Makarivka, Novodarivka, Rivnopil, and Zeleny Pol on 11 November.

ISW assesses that while Russian forces have advanced at a moderate tempo in western Donetsk Oblast – covering just over 10 kilometers from the Vuhledar-Prechystivka line in five weeks – they remain unlikely to achieve a rapid mechanized maneuver capable of encircling Ukrainian forces. The current advance rate would allow Ukrainian units sufficient time to withdraw from frontline positions without encirclement risk.

The think tank emphasizes that potential elimination of the Ukrainian salient around Kurakhove does not indicate an imminent frontline collapse in Donetsk Oblast, as settlements further west could provide defensible positions for Ukrainian forces.

Russia’s Kursk

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