ISW: Kremlin delays 2026 election planning amid uncertainty over Ukraine war duration

October 31, 2024

By Ukraine

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Russian authorities are facing significant challenges in preparing for the 2026 State Duma elections due to uncertainty about the course of the war in Ukraine, Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on 30 October, as per ISW.

Putin’s United Russia party currently holds 324 of 450 seats in the State Duma, Russia’s lower house, and 136 of 178 seats in the Federation Council, the upper chamber. The rest of parliament consists of Putin loyalists, like coalition partner LDNR, and nominal opposition such as the CPSU. Earlier, ISW reported that Russia aimed for victory in Ukraine by 2026.

According to Meduza, Russia’s Presidential Administration First Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko has not initiated planning for the 2026 Duma elections, despite the Kremlin’s usual practice of beginning such preparations two years in advance.

A source close to the Presidential Administration told Meduza that the framing of the Duma elections’ policy depends on whether Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue in 2026. The uncertainty extends to the United Russia ruling party’s campaign strategy, with a source within the party’s leadership telling Meduza they are unclear whether to feature military personnel or someone representing peace, such as Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

A Just Russia held a congress on 26 October, announcing its new political course of “patriotic socialism,” which the party described as necessary during Russia’s war in Ukraine and “firmly based on the great achievements of Russian civilization.”

Meanwhile, the Kremlin continues its government militarization efforts. The “Time of Heroes” program, overseen by Kiriyenko, aims to place Russian veterans of the Ukraine war in various government positions.

ISW assesses this program as part of broader Kremlin efforts to militarize Russian society and government, alongside preparations for potential large-scale conflict with NATO.

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