Ukraine hopes Washington will support Kyiv's NATO bid after elections, as opposition in Europe persists

October 26, 2024

By Ukraine

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The desire to receive an official invitation to NATO tops President Volodymyr Zelensky's victory plan.

While acknowledging that membership itself is a matter for after the war, Zelensky urged allies to send an invitation before U.S. President Joe Biden leaves office in January.

The president also said that Ukraine needs to receive an invitation without conditions to cede territory, denying earlier reports that Kyiv might be invited to the alliance without the occupied parts of the country, such as Donetsk and Crimea.

But despite the ambitious request, there seems to be little appetite for a fast-tracked invitation while the war is ongoing.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed that NATO cannot "become a party of war."

Even if Kyiv sways the hesitant heavyweights – U.S. and Germany – Ukraine-skeptic governments in Hungary and Slovakia remain a vocal obstacle. In total, at least seven NATO countries are reluctant to grant Ukraine an invitation to join NATO, Politico reported on Oct. 23.

At least seven NATO countries are reluctant to grant Ukraine an invitation to join NATO.

Even if that hurdle is overcome, further down the road lies a drawn-out accession process that requires ratification by all the 32 parliaments.

"We are talking about a very, very long future," Volodymyr Ogrysko, Ukraine's former foreign minister, told the Kyiv Independent.

Kyiv applied for membership in September 2022 as Russia's full-scale invasion was in full swing. Despite Ukraine knocking on the door for two years, the alliance has been hesitant to give a clear signal.

Ogrysko was nevertheless crystal clear about why Ukraine needs full membership: "Otherwise, it will be only an invitation for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to repeat this in one or two years…And I don't know why our Western colleagues really do not understand that."

"I would say that at best, extending an invitation could potentially happen relatively quickly following a favorable U.S. election," Camille Grand, a security and NATO expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the Kyiv Independent.

"Formal accession would follow the post-hot phase of the conflict," he added.

`NATO divided on Ukraine's prospects`

The Vilnius Summit communique from last year stated that Ukraine would "join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met." This vague promise was reiterated this year during the allied gathering in Washington, though it was "upgraded" by saying that Ukraine's path toward NATO is "irreversible."

These lukewarm pledges come as little surprise. As the allies remain divided on the issue, the 32-member consensus necessary for inviting and admitting a new member remains far off.

Kyiv's NATO prospects have received clear support from at least some allies, namely those on the eastern flank like Poland and the Baltic states.

"We see confident support from France. We understand that Britain will support us, and we believe that Italy will as well," Zelensky said during a press briefing on Oct. 21 attended by the Kyiv Independent. The president nevertheless acknowledged reluctance from some members.

The U.S. and Germany, NATO's largest economies and leading suppliers of military assistance to Ukraine, have represented the main opposition to Kyiv's fast accession.

While Washington was once the leading force behind NATO enlargement, the Biden administration took a much more careful approach, which some observers ascribe to the president's "Cold War mentality" and fears of an escalation with Russia.

And even if Biden were to change his position, "there remains…real opposition coming from Hungary but also countries more supportive of Ukraine, (such) as Germany," Grand said.

"I, therefore… do not expect an invitation to be granted in the short term, even though I believe it would be a powerful signal," the expert noted.

Speaking after meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Kyiv, Zelensky said that he hopes for a more "positive reaction" from Washington after the election. He also believes that U.S. support could nudge other reluctant parties, such as Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary, in a more positive direction.

There have been conflicting reports on the current mood in Washington. While the French outlet Le Monde wrote that Biden might be open to an invitation if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election in November. Politico reports that the opposition on the other side of the Atlantic persists.

Getting Washington on board would certainly put strong pressure on other members but would not ensure an immediate invitation.

In Berlin, the mood is tepid at best.

Speaking to German public broadcaster ZDF on Oct. 24, the chancellor dismissed the appeal for an immediate invitation, adding that a "country at war absolutely cannot become a member of NATO."

"German skepticism about our joining NATO is a fact," Zelensky acknowledged.

Finally, there are the wildcards of Hungary and Slovakia, both led by populist leaders who have repeatedly criticized military assistance for Ukraine over fears of being dragged into the war.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called Zelensky's victory plan "terrifying," his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico vowed that he would block Ukraine's membership as long as he is in office.

But experience shows that despite fiery rhetoric, Bratislava has rarely broken Western consensus on key policy issues. Budapest did, along with Turkey, block the accession of Finland and Sweden but eventually withdrew its opposition after gaining some benefits.

"I can imagine that Hungary will make some requests regarding the Hungarian minority in (Ukraine's) Zakarpattia Oblast," Pavel Havlicek, a research fellow at the Prague-based Association for International Affairs, told the Kyiv Independent.

In a similar fashion, Budapest has used the 75,000-large Hungarian minority in Ukraine's westernmost region to hamper Kyiv's EU accession.

"Of course, we know how it went with Sweden and Finland… in the end, it was only a matter of time before the pressure from the alliance was too strong," Havlicek added, noting that Bratislava is even less likely to put up real resistance due to its security dependence on the U.S.

Nevertheless, Budapest has more reasons to obstruct Ukraine's invitation and entry than it did with the two Nordic countries.

"As criticism of Ukraine and the pro-peace narrative have become such core parts of Fidesz's (Hungary's ruling party) politics, it is much harder to imagine that the current Hungarian National Assembly would ratify Ukraine's accession to NATO," says Patrik Szicherle, a research fellow at the Globsec think tank.

"This does not mean Hungary would never agree, but I think it would take a longer time to convince the public that it would benefit Hungary."

According to Politico's sources, other countries, like Belgium, Slovenia, or Spain, are also averse to a quick invite for Ukraine but are less vocal about it, hiding in Berlin and Washington's shadow.

"Unfortunately, I think that the political support within NATO is not strong enough at this time," said James Goldgeier, a professor at the American University in Washington D.C. and an expert on NATO enlargement.

Voicing skepticism about Biden actually changing his position, Goldgeier added: "The biggest question is what approach would a Harris administration take if she were to win the election. I don't think we know that yet."

Harris did not publicly commit to pushing Ukraine's NATO bid forward. Nor did her Republican challenger, Donald Trump, whose potential return to the White House prompts fears of the U.S. decreasing or canceling its support of Ukraine.

`NATO membership and compromises`

Even if Kyiv manages to muster support among all 32 members, Zelensky acknowledged that the actual membership will have to wait until the end of the war.

The military outcome of the full-scale war is unclear, but the current situation seems to favor Russia and makes it unlikely that Ukraine will be able to liberate all of its territories in the near future.

While Ukraine's allies have publicly avowed commitment to its territorial integrity, the present situation led to some speculations about more "realistic" pathways toward NATO membership.

Speaking to the Financial Times, former NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg proposed a "West German solution," suggesting that the alliance's Article 5 could extend only to territories held by Kyiv.

The areas occupied by Russia would be de facto left outside of the alliance without officially acknowledging them as Russian. Some media reports also suggested that some in the West are considering the possibility of Ukraine temporarily trading its territory for NATO membership.

The areas occupied by Russia would be de facto left outside of the alliance without officially acknowledging them as Russian.

Talking to the Kyiv Independent, Grand said that while he fully supports Ukraine restoring its territorial integrity, "full control over the entire territory should, however, not be a prerequisite for joining NATO."

The expert said that the West Germany solution "proved a good decision for the Alliance, for Germany and for European security" and "some lessons of this experience could apply to Ukraine."

Others, like historian Timothy Garton Ash, pointed out differences in the German and Ukrainian starting points. Unlike Russian-occupied Ukraine, East Germany was not being "brutally Russified," he wrote in an op-ed in the Financial Times.

Oleksiy Melnyk, the co-director of Kyiv-based think tank Razumkov Center, said such a decision would not be the most "favorable scenario," but it is not unfeasible if the allies provide enough military power to back it up.

He also mollified fears that accepting Ukraine into NATO would automatically mandate the allies to put boots on the ground. Extending the invitation and accepting Ukraine would be powerful by itself as it would impose strategic uncertainty on the Kremlin: "We don't have to (send our soldiers). But we have the right at any moment to do so."

Indeed, Article 5 requires the allies merely to take "such action as (they) deem necessary" to safeguard collective security but does not dictate a full-blown military response.

At least publicly, Kyiv has been adamant that it will not compromise on territory or sovereignty. Commenting on the possibility of entering NATO without occupied territories, Zelensky said that "no matter what path we take, legally, no one will recognize the occupied territories as territories of other states."

The Ukrainian president noted that he was not approached directly with the NATO-for-territory proposals but believes some partners are sending these signals through the media.

"I think that in this case, everything depends on Ukrainian society," Zelensky said.

A survey conducted in May 2024 showed that 55% of Ukrainians opposed territorial concession. While still constituting a majority, it was a drop from 65% and 74% in February 2024 and December 2023.

In the same poll, roughly half of the respondents were open to the possibility of Russia de facto holding on to some occupied territories if Ukraine can join NATO and gain real security guarantees.

Ukrainian political analyst Mykola Davydiuk said that if NATO is actually considering the West German scenario, it needs to make the offer officially, but it must also understand how Russia would react to such a step.

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