BREAKING: Ukraine Incursion into Belgorod!

Russia’s Defense Ministry reports that the situation at the border is “difficult but under control,” which could mean a range of things. While “under control” might suggest that things are being contained or rolled back, in this case, it’s not the same as saying the situation is going well. In fact, it’s possible that things are not going well.

About 200 Ukrainian troops attacked the border crossing at Nea and another 300 at Shino, which suggests that we’re looking at a significant effort. Russia controls the entire northern part of the Velikodere region, making it unclear how Ukrainian troops would get into Shino. It’s possible that these are small raids conducted by paratroopers or special forces to disrupt Russian troops.

It’s unlikely that 200-300 troops could achieve a sustained breakthrough, but they could be conducting raids to disrupt Russian forces and then retreating. This is consistent with the kind of behavior we’d expect from these types of units.

Additionally, Ukraine’s chief of staff reports that Ukraine controls almost 1,300 square kilometers of territory in the Kharkiv region, representing a 30% increase from two weeks ago. Reports suggest Ukrainian forces have entered the city of Krynyk, which would be significant as it’s a strategic location. This could make it harder for Russian troops to reinforce their forces or block Ukrainian advances towards the Katov nuclear power plant.