How is the war going? — Early September 2022

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September 9, 2022

Video Summary

The situation on the front lines is developing rapidly, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive gaining momentum in some unexpected areas. In the northern sector, the situation remains largely unchanged, with Belarus continuing to conduct military exercises and attempting to tie up Ukrainian soldiers along the border. In the Sumy region, there are occasional border breaches, but nothing indicating a more serious conflict.

In the Kherson region, Ukraine has been discussing a counteroffensive, and in August, there was great uncertainty about the progress of the offensive. Some believe that the confusion arose because Ukraine had two contradictory goals: to free the region and to defeat as many Russian soldiers as possible. Geographically, the region favors Ukraine, and Russian forces are strong. Ukraine has been slowly pushing forward with its offensive, with three separate pushes from different directions. Recently, Ukraine has gained a foothold over the Inhulets River, allowing it to attack midstream and force Russia to fight on multiple fronts. Ukraine has also targeted Russian supply lines, destroying bridges and several improvised crossing points.

Ukraine is facing a challenge in the Kharkiv region, where it has been rapidly advancing, taking the city of Balakleya and then Shevchenkovo. This is expected to cut off Russian supply lines to the city of Izyum, which Russia has used to attack Ukrainian territory. The situation in this area is fast-moving, and Ukraine must act quickly to seize the opportunity.

The situation in the eastern part of the Donbas region is calm, with Russia pressing hard along the front line from Severodonetsk to Bakhmut and Donbas. This is Russia’s response to Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kherson, trying to force Ukraine to shift troops to this area to strengthen their positions. However, Ukraine is holding firm, and there is no clear picture. Overall, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is unfolding differently in each region, with a slow but steady progress in some areas and a more rapid advance in others.