No, Russia Isn’t “Winning” The War of Attrition

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October 6, 2024

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Russia is often mistakenly believed to be winning the war of attrition in Ukraine, but I, a US Army Combat veteran, will argue that the opposite is true. To determine the reality of the war of attrition, we must examine casualty numbers. While commentators often focus on tanks, drones, and artillery, I argue that we should look at the actual losses to people, as they are a better indicator of the war’s progress.

Casualties are not created equal, and it’s difficult to gauge the severity of wounds, as some troops may be wounded and then return to duty swiftly. Ukraine and Russia both have experienced significant wounded numbers, but this statistic is unreliable due to differences in reporting and treatment. For instance, Ukrainian forces may be more likely to report wounds to receive additional benefits, while Russian commanders may downplay wounded soldiers to keep them on active duty.

Using casualty numbers as a proxy, we can observe that Ukraine is actually gaining an advantage. The Wall Street Journal reports that Ukraine has suffered around 80,000 killed and 400,000 wounded, while Russia has reportedly lost 200,000 killed and 400,000 wounded. This means that for every one Russian killed, around two to three Russians are killed. This significant disparity suggests that Ukraine is winning the war of attrition.

Despite this, Russia has increased its military signup bonuses and contract payments to attract more recruits. This suggests that they are struggling to maintain troop numbers, further supporting the argument that Ukraine is gaining an upper hand. Russia’s desperate measures include TV recruitment marathons, paying for referrals, and offering unsustainable salaries and bonuses, indicating a deeper problem with recruitment.

This analysis suggests that Ukraine is more likely winning the war of attrition, despite Russia’s attempts to prop up its military through financial incentives.