CHINA in Deep Trouble
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The Chinese economy has seen a significant increase in exports in June, with a 8.6% rise, the best result in 15 months. However, despite this positive figure, the export growth is unlikely to be sustained as new tariffs are set to be applied against Chinese products in the second half of 2024. The tariffs, introduced by the US and European Union, will make Chinese goods more expensive in those markets, potentially leading to a fall in demand. To beat this price increase, Chinese companies have been stockpiling products, which has led to a short-term boom in exports. However, this is not sustainable, and a fall in exports is likely to occur as the tariffs take effect. Additionally, Chinese companies are struggling with falling factory gate prices, which is putting pressure on their profitability and pushing many into loss-making situations. The country is also facing deflation, with consumer spending falling, and the likelihood of negative price increases by the end of 2024. The Chinese economy’s 5% GDP growth target for 2024 is under threat, which will have a negative impact on the global economy.
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