How is the war going? — Early May 2023

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May 3, 2023

Video Summary

The situation in Ukraine has remained relatively quiet over the past month, with both sides still fighting for control of the city of Bakhmut. However, as the soil is drying up in May, signs are emerging that Ukraine’s counteroffensive is beginning. The most intense fighting is still taking place in the East, primarily around the cities of Vuhledar, Avdiivka, and Bakhmut. Russia has been trying to break through to Vuhledar, but has suffered significant losses.

In Bakhmut, the Russians have made some gains, but their efforts have been costly, and the Ukrainians are deliberately holding out in a small corner of the city to inflict maximum losses on the Russian troops. This tactic is likely intended to delay the Russian counteroffensive and prevent them from relocating troops to other areas of the front.

Away from the main front, Ukraine has been launching attacks on Russian logistics and supply lines, including a notable attack on an oil depot in Sevastopol. This is part of preparation for a larger spring offensive, which will aim to identify Russian weaknesses and disrupt their supply lines.

There is a possibility that Ukraine’s spring offensive may not be as extensive as previously predicted, but rather a series of smaller, targeted attacks designed to wear down the Russian army and create opportunities for further gains. The use of Western equipment, such as Bradleys and Leopard tanks, may be a sign of the start of the counteroffensive.

It is difficult to predict the outcome of the conflict, but Ukraine appears to be in a stronger position, with Russia’s winter offensive having been unsuccessful and Ukraine’s counteroffensive likely to begin soon. The war may continue for some time, but Ukraine’s strategy is designed to ultimately lead to a breakthrough.