Naval war is back after grain deal collapse

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July 24, 2023

Video Summary

The grain deal between Ukraine and Russia, which allowed for the export of Ukrainian grain, is now apparently dead. This news is significant and has implications for the Russian navy. The deal was initially signed in July 2022 and was renewed several times, with Russia ultimately leaving the deal in October, only to rejoin it a few days later.

Russia’s decision to leave the grain deal is likely due to a combination of factors. Firstly, they were likely unhappy with the agreement, which was seen as a way for Ukraine to earn revenue and undermine Russia’s military advantage. Secondly, Russia may have been concerned about being blamed for a food crisis in developing countries, which could damage their diplomatic efforts in Africa.

The recent bombing of the Kerch bridge by Ukraine is also a factor in Russia’s decision, as it creates serious logistical issues for their military and is a personal humiliation for Putin. As a result, Russia has announced that it will no longer extend the grain deal and has made a list of impossible demands before rejoining the agreement.

The implications of Russia’s decision are significant, as it may lead to a food crisis in developing countries and could ultimately benefit Ukraine. Russia may also be at a disadvantage, as they are unable to control the shipping lanes and could potentially lose influence over the maritime traffic. Ukraine, on the other hand, may be able to use maritime transportation for military logistics, potentially giving them an advantage in the war. The timing of the Kerch bridge bombing and Russia’s decision to leave the grain deal is puzzling, but it may be a trap for Putin that he has fallen into. Overall, the naval aspects of the war are back on the agenda, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet may lose its relevance if it is unable to enforce a blockade.