What will happen in year three of the war?

Video Summary

Over two years have passed since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and the war shows no signs of abating. While Ukraine has resisted the initial invasion and liberated parts of occupied territory, Russia has likely had more success in the second year of the war, regaining the initiative and putting Ukraine under pressure with a winter offensive. As the war enters its third year, it’s important to consider the scenarios that may play out. The author envisions an optimistic and pessimistic scenario for the coming year. In the optimistic scenario, Ukraine’s defense production grows, and they manage to inflict heavy casualties on Russia, eventually gaining the upper hand on the battlefield. Meanwhile, Russia’s production capacity peaks and begins to decline, leading to instability and eventual revolt. In the pessimistic scenario, Russia capitalizes on its current advantage, inflicts losses on Ukraine, and prevents them from obtaining new weapons and supplies. The author concludes that the key factor in determining the outcome will be the stabilization of supply chains supporting Ukraine, which will depend on the effectiveness of Western countries in coordinating their efforts. The author expects the most interesting development in 2024 will be whether Ukraine’s western partners can provide a sustainable long-term strategy to support Ukraine’s defense.

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