Ukraine can face a bigger Russian army
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The Ukrainians’ advance in Kursk has created a dilemma for Putin, both militarily and politically. The military dimension of this dilemma is that Ukraine’s advance has forced Russia to divert troops to the Kursk region, which was previously a quiet front. This has put pressure on the Russian military to expand the red line, which is the area where Russian and Ukrainian forces may operate. Russia must now focus on strengthening its forces on the Ukrainian border, which means relocating troops and resources from other fronts, including the Donetsk region.
The political dimension of the dilemma is that Putin must decide how to respond to Ukraine’s advance without triggering a massive escalation of the conflict. He must balance the need to demonstrate military strength with the need to maintain public support in Russia. The mobilization of Russian reservists is a possibility, but it may not be enough to stop Ukraine’s advance. Putin’s ultimate goal is to escalate the conflict and bring it to the Russian heartland. The author believes that this is the most likely scenario, as it would allow Putin to fulfill his objective without losing face or stability.
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