ISW: North Korean military aid could allow Putin to avoid mobilization

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on 16 October that Russia may leverage its recent strategic partnership agreement with North Korea to bolster its military forces without resorting to massive mobilization.

This assessment comes after Ukrainian intelligence reports claiming the formation of a 3,000-strong North Korean battalion within the Russian 11th Airborne Brigade.

Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and Liga, citing anonymous military intelligence sources, report that this unit is expected to engage in defensive operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The sources also reported that “up to 18 North Korean soldiers have already deserted their positions in Bryansk and Kursk oblasts before the unit has been committed to combat operations.

ISW reports that Russian officials did not deny the reports on 15 October. The think tank points out that Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted the text of the Russia-North Korea agreement to the State Duma for ratification on 14 October.

ISW suggests that this provision could serve as legal justification for deploying North Korean soldiers to combat zones in Russia, particularly in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.

The think tank reports that this move aligns with Putin’s strategy of “pursuing alternative force generation avenues instead of committing to declaring partial or general mobilization.”

Putin has consistently relied on crypto-mobilization and the formation of new volunteer formations to avoid the domestic ramifications of conducting a society-wide general mobilization or another partial mobilization wave.

The report concludes that “Putin appears more willing to absorb North Korean personnel into the Russian military and resort to other irregular force generation efforts than to call for a wider mobilization actually to address the combat situation in the theater of operations.”

The United States expressed “concern” over the potential involvement of North Korean military personnel in Russia’s forces fighting against Ukraine.

Sean Savett, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, said that if the reports of North Korean troop participation in Ukraine are confirmed, it would signify a “significant escalation” in the defense relationship between North Korea and Russia.

Russia and North Korea strengthened their relations since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In particular, North Korea reportedly sent over 1.5 million artillery shells to Russia from their stockpiles dating back to the 1970s and 1980s.

In early 2024, missile debris from attacks on Kharkiv was identified as North Korean in origin, confirmed by the UN. Since then, Russia has been using at least 20 North Korean-made weapons against Ukraine, which have caused civilian casualties and injuries. 

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